State Senator Jamie Pedersen Tests Arguments Against Himself Because He Takes Hannah Sabio-Howell’s Lefty Challenge Seriously

Washington State Senate Majority Leader Jamie Pedersen confirmed to The Burner that his campaign ran a poll testing negative messages about himself ahead of the 2026 election. For the first time in two decades, Pedersen is facing a lefty challenger with real momentum, First Hill renter Hannah Sabio-Howell. Regardless of what information the voters give Pedersen through his poll, paying for the poll at all tells Sabio-Howell’s campaign that Pedersen sees her as a real threat.

“I didn’t even consider that Pedersen would be so rattled by [Sabio-Howell] that he’s already polling in the race,” said Sabio-Howell’s political consultant Stephen Paolini. “To put this into context, he’s spending tens of thousands of dollars in April testing negative attacks on himself — essentially trying to figure out how to sell his record to voters because he knows it’s out of touch with their values.”

The Burner gave Pedersen the opportunity to defend himself against his own attacks and the assertion that he’s afraid of Sabio-Howell.

“Of course, we take [Sabio-Howell] seriously,” Pedersen affirmed in an email to The Burner. “She is a serious candidate.” 

The poll tested the case for and against Pedersen as well as a hit against Sabio-Howell. Paolini told The Burner that in the consultant world, this is called a “baseline poll,” not necessarily a poll to decide language for mailers. By seeing how convincing voters find the arguments his competitor will likely use against him, Pedersen and his supporters can determine how much money they need to raise to fend her off. 

Screenshots of the questions, which can be found here, offer a window into the messaging Pedersen’s team is considering as the campaign takes shape.

The poll tested the persuasiveness of a few positive messages about Pedersen. It appears the campaign may try to paint Pedersen as a fighter against ICE’s terror campaign, one of the strongest advocates for labor power in Washington State history, a champion for the climate, and a progressive foe of Elon Musk and FOX News. 

But what's perhaps more telling are the possible attacks on Pedersen. Some appear borrowed from Sabio-Howell's negative messaging and others possibly come from the campaign's own insecurities.

The poll tests how much voters care that Pedersen wrote corporate tax breaks into the Millionaire’s tax, otherwise one of the flashiest progressive victories of his time in Olympia. Sabio-Howell criticized Pedersen for this even before launching her campaign and now as a candidate, she continues to undercut his lefty bonafides by telling voters about the half billion dollar handout. As The Burner reported, a group of progressive House members led the charge against Pedersen’s tax break and managed to strike it from the final legislation. 

In a similar vein, Pedersen also supported an effort to clawback the recent expansion to the State’s estate tax. While he initially approved lowering taxes on the State’s wealthiest dead people, he voted no on the floor after the bill returned from the other chamber. 

At the time, Pedersen explained to The Burner that he initially voted “yes” on lowering the estate tax as a sort of trade to get the Millionaires Tax across the finish line. Later in the process, he said it was “very clear” that the estate tax rollback would pass regardless of how he voted, Pedersen said he could “vote [his] district on the bill.” 

The poll also shows Pedersen is concerned how voters will react to allegations of self-dealing. 

The poll asks how much doubt the following statement raises: “Pedersen has used his influence as Senate Leader to steer $29 million in government contracts toward a company he partly owns. Pedersen has also fought for and passed legislation that financially benefits his company, presenting a clear conflict of interest.” 

An anonymous project called the “Sunshine Docket” published an expose on Pedersen’s alleged financial conflicts of interest that’s been making the rounds with insiders in the recent weeks. The Sunshine Docket argues bills Pedersen supported, such the 2019 Clean Building Performance Standards bill and the 2021 Climate Commitment Act, benefit his primary employer, McKinstry, a Seattle construction and energy services company where he earns more than half a million dollars a year. These are the kinds of conflicts of interest the Sunshine Docket says would be investigated by the Legislative Ethics Board Pedersen sits on himself.

The poll also tests the strength of general anti-incumbent sentiment among 43rd voters.

“...Pedersen is an out of touch and very wealthy lawyer who has been in office for over 2 decades. Rather than fighting for regular people, he continues to side with big corporations. It’s time for a new generation of leadership because the same people who got Washington into this mess, can’t get us out of it,” the poll reads. 

This will likely become an overarching theme for Sabio-Howell’s campaign communication strategy. This kind of broad, anti-establishment sentiment already came up in many profiles about her candidacy, the speech at her recent campaign kick-off party, and the Tik Tok she used to launch her campaign. 

It’s not a bad idea. Or a unique one. Many candidates have used these types of arguments to unseat powerful incumbents in recent elections — most famously New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and then everyone who tried to borrow from his hype, including Seattle Mayor Katie Wilson. 

Finally, the poll sees how convinced voters are by the assertion that Pedersen waters down bills to appease Republicans and corporations. Sabio-Howell’s campaign is certainly messaging about this, but it may be a difficult argument to make to voters. Most of his alleged sabotage of progressive bills happens behind closed doors or incremental, procedural ways. Sabio-Howell seems to be pointing the finger of blame at him for the high cap on the rent stabilization bill, a narrative that may be too weedy and insidery to make for a powerful hit on a mailer

The poll also tried out an attack on Sabio-Howell. 

“...Sabio-Howell‘s campaign promises sound good until you realize she does not have a plan to get them done. She has not built the relationships in Olympia or has the desire to work with all members in our party necessary to effectively pass bold progressive legislation. She is more interested in slogans than solutions. Her unwillingness to work together will cause progress to stall rather than pushing meaningful legislation forward. Right now, we need to focus on continuing to move Washington forward, not halt progress for ideological fights,” the poll reads.

Seattle voters are very used to the sentiment that having strong principles makes you unable to work with others. But hey, at least the campaign isn’t testing comparisons to consultant’s favorite boogeyman Kshama Sawant! 

Sabio-Howell should expect this line of attack, but she can quell it by pointing to her endorsements: Shaun Scott, who represents the 43rd LD in the House and departing State Sen. Rebecca Saldaña, who she worked with in the Legislature to pass pro-worker legislation. 

Whether or not Sabio-Howell will topple one of the most powerful Democrats in the state remains an open question. Pedersen has money, institutional support, decades of relationships in Olympia, and a legislative record he clearly believes can withstand scrutiny.

But the poll itself reveals something important: Even after more than twenty years in office and a rise to Senate Majority Leader, Pedersen does not appear to view this race as a symbolic protest campaign. Afterall, Sabio-Howell’s attracted a small army of volunteers, proved commendable fundraising chops, and has scooped some impressive endorsements. 

For Sabio-Howell, that alone amounts to an early political victory. Before even the filing deadline, her campaign has already managed to force one of the most powerful legislators in the state to explain himself.